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Record W2954679722 · doi:10.1177/0974910118824421

Global Risks for Eurasia in 2019

2018· article· en· W2954679722 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Yerzhan Saltybayev

Bibliographic record

VenueGlobal Journal of Emerging Market Economies · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArctic and Russian Policy Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsProtectionismChinaSanctionsInternational tradePessimismGeopoliticsPolitical scienceVulnerability (computing)BrexitEuropean unionDevelopment economicsEconomyEconomic growthEconomicsPoliticsLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Rating of Global Risks for Eurasia in 2019 is the first analytical project to assess global risks for the Eurasian macroregion. The risk rating was released as part of the Astana Club international meeting and is based on a survey of over 1,000 professional respondents from 60 countries and detailed opinions of 30 prominent international experts. The world’s vulnerability to global risks will grow – the overwhelming majority of experts who participated in the project are sure of this. Pessimism seems to be associated with a new round of tension in the Middle East, crises around Iran and Ukraine, rising tensions in the South China Sea, and sanctions against Russia. Another trend that will continue in the coming year is the rise of protectionism. 56 percent of polled experts are inclined to this opinion. Pessimism is added by the aggravation of trade conflicts between the United States and its key trading partners: China, the European Union, as well as the NAFTA members such as Canada and Mexico. Although part of the conflict has been resolved, the confrontation between the United States and China will not lose its relevance in 2019. The global geopolitical and geo-economic confrontation has been spilling over onto the new area: the cyber environment. World tensions have also kept the countries from finding common ground on solving environmental problems and challenges.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.640
Threshold uncertainty score0.506

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.035
GPT teacher head0.372
Teacher spread0.337 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2018
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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