Detection of Tuberculosis Recurrence, Diagnosis and Treatment Response by a Blood Transcriptomic Risk Signature in HIV-Infected Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
HIV-infected individuals are at high risk of tuberculosis disease and those with prior tuberculosis episodes are at even higher risk of disease recurrence. A non-sputum biomarker that identifies individuals at highest tuberculosis risk would allow targeted microbiological testing and appropriate treatment and also guide need for prolonged therapy. We determined the utility of a previously developed whole blood transcriptomic correlate of risk (COR) signature for (1) predicting incident recurrent tuberculosis, (2) tuberculosis diagnosis and (3) its potential utility for tuberculosis treatment monitoring in HIV-infected individuals. We retrieved cryopreserved blood specimens from three previously completed clinical studies and measured the COR signature by quantitative microfluidic real-time-PCR. The signature differentiated recurrent tuberculosis progressors from non-progressors within 3 months of diagnosis with an area under the Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.58-0.85) amongst HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Twenty-five of 43 progressors (58%) were asymptomatic at microbiological diagnosis and thus had subclinical disease. The signature showed excellent diagnostic discrimination between HIV-uninfected tuberculosis cases and controls (AUC 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-1). Performance was lower in HIV-infected individuals (AUC 0.83; 95%CI 0.81-0.96) and signature scores were directly associated with HIV viral loads. Tuberculosis treatment response in HIV-infected individuals on ART with a new recurrent tuberculosis diagnosis was also assessed. Signature scores decreased significantly during treatment. However, pre-treatment scores could not differentiate between those who became sputum negative before and after 2 months. Direct application of the unmodified blood transcriptomic COR signature detected subclinical and active tuberculosis by blind validation in HIV-infected individuals. However, prognostic performance for recurrent tuberculosis, and performance as diagnostic and as treatment monitoring tool in HIV-infected persons was inferior to published results from HIV-negative cohorts. Our results suggest that performance of transcriptomic signatures comprising interferon stimulated genes are negatively affected in HIV-infected individuals, especially in those with incompletely suppressed viral loads.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".