Proxy models for evaluation of permeability, three-phase relative permeability, and capillary pressure curves from rate-transient data
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study developed a data-driven forecasting tool that predicts petrophysical properties from rate-transient data. Traditional estimations of petrophysical properties, such as relative permeability (RP) and capillary pressure (CP), strongly rely on coring and laboratory measurements. Coring and laboratory measurements are typically conducted only in a small fraction of wells. To contend with this constraint, in this study, we develop artificial neural network (ANN)-based tools that predict the three-phase RP relationship, CP relationship, and formation permeability in the horizontal and vertical directions using the production rate and pressure data for black-oil reservoirs. Petrophysical properties are related to rate-transient data as they govern the fluid flow in oil/gas reservoirs. An ANN has been proven capable of mimicking any functional relationship with a finite number of discontinuities. To generate an ANN representing the functional relationship between rate-transient data and petrophysical properties, an ANN structure pool is first generated and trained. Cases covering a wide spectrum of properties are then generated and put into training. Training of ANNs in the pool and comparisons among their performance yield the desired ANN structure that performs the most effectively among the ANNs in the pool. The developed tool is validated with blind tests and a synthetic field case. Reasonable predictions for the field cases are obtained. Within a fraction of second, the developed ANNs infer accurate characteristics of RP and CP for three phases as well as residual saturation, critical gas saturation, connate water saturation, and horizontal permeability with a small margin of error. The predicted RP and CP relationship can be generated and applied in history matching and reservoir modeling. Moreover, this tool can spare coring expenses and prolonged experiments in most of the field analysis. The developed ANNs predict the characteristics of three-phase RP and CP data, connate water saturation, residual oil saturation, and critical gas saturation using rate-transient data. For cases fulfilling the requirement of the tool, the proposed technique improves reservoir description while reducing expenses and time associated with coring and laboratory experiments at the same time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it