The missing dwarf galaxies of the Local Group
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT We study the Local Group (LG) dwarf galaxy population predicted by the APOSTLE ΛCDM cosmological hydrodynamics simulations. These indicate that: (i) the total mass within 3 Mpc of the Milky Way–Andromeda mid-point (M3Mpc) typically exceeds ∼3 times the sum of the virial masses (M200crit) of the two primaries and (ii) the dwarf galaxy formation efficiency per unit mass is uniform throughout the volume. This suggests that the satellite population within the virial radii of the Milky Way and Andromeda should make up fewer than one third of all LG dwarfs within 3 Mpc. This is consistent with the fraction of observed LG galaxies with stellar mass $M_*\gt 10^7\, {\rm M}_\odot$ that are satellites (12 out of 42; i.e. 28 per cent). For the APOSTLE galaxy mass–halo mass relation, the total number of such galaxies further suggests an LG mass of $M_{\rm 3 Mpc}\sim 10^{13}\, {\rm M}_\odot$. At lower galaxy masses, however, the observed satellite fraction is substantially higher (42 per cent for $M_*\gt 10^5\, { \mathrm{ M}}_\odot$). If this is due to incompleteness in the field sample, then ∼50 dwarf galaxies at least as massive as the Draco dwarf spheroidal must be missing from the current LG field dwarf inventory. The incompleteness interpretation is supported by the pronounced flattening of the LG luminosity function below $M_*\sim 10^7\, {\rm M}_\odot$, and by the scarcity of low surface brightness LG field galaxies compared to satellites. The simulations indicate that most missing dwarfs should lie near the virial boundaries of the two LG primaries, and predict a trove of nearby dwarfs that await discovery by upcoming wide-field imaging surveys.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".