Independent lineages in a common environment: the roles of determinism and contingency in shaping the migration timing of even‐ versus odd‐year pink salmon over broad spatial and temporal scales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Studies of parallel evolution are seldom able to disentangle the influence of cryptic environmental variation from that of evolutionary history; whereas the unique life history of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) presents an opportunity to do so. All pink salmon mature at age two and die after breeding. Hence, pink salmon bred in even years are completely reproductively isolated from those bred in odd years, even if the two lineages bred in same location. We used time series (mean = 7 years, maximum = 74 years) of paired even- and odd-year populations from 36 rivers spanning over 2000 km to explore parallelism in migration timing, a trait with a strong genetic basis. Migration timing was highly parallel, being determined almost entirely by local environmental differences among rivers. Interestingly, interannual changes in migration timing different somewhat between lineages. Overall, our findings indicate very strong determinism, with only a minor contribution of contingency.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".