Use of an epiphytic lichen and a novel geostatistical approach to evaluate spatial and temporal changes in atmospheric deposition in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Alberta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Temporal and spatial atmospheric deposition trends of elements to the boreal forest surrounding bitumen production operations in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR), Alberta, Canada were investigated as part of a long-term lichen bioindicator study. The study focused on eight elements (sulfur, nitrogen, aluminum, calcium, iron, nickel, strontium, vanadium) that were previously identified as tracers for the major oil sand production sources. Samples of the in situ epiphytic lichen Hypogymnia physodes were collected in 2002, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 within a ~150 km radius from the center of surface oil sand production operations in the AOSR. Site-specific time series analysis conducted at eight jack pine upland sites that were repeatedly sampled generally showed significant trends of increasing lichen concentrations for fugitive dust linked elements, particularly at near-field (<25 km from a major oil sands production operation) sample locations. Multiple regional scale geostatistical models were developed and evaluated to characterize broad-scale changes in atmospheric deposition based on changes in H. physodes elemental concentrations between 2008 and 2014. Empirical Bayesian kriging and cokriging lichen element concentrations with oil sands mining, bitumen upgrading, coke materials handling, and limestone quarry/crushing influence variables produced spatial interpolation estimates with the lowest validation errors. Gridded zonal mean lichen element concentrations were calculated for the two comprehensive sampling years (2008, 2014) and evaluated for spatial and temporal change. Lichen sulfur concentrations significantly increased in every grid cell within the domain with the largest increases (44-88%) in the central valley in close proximity to the major surface oil sand production operations, while a minor nitrogen concentration decrease (-20%) in a single grid cell was observed. The areal extent of fugitive dust element deposition generally increased with significantly higher deposition to lichens restricted to the outer grids of the enhanced deposition field, reflecting new and expanding surface mining activity.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".