Regional economic implications of the mountain pine beetle infestation in the Northern Interior Forest Region of British Columbia.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Economic impact analysis provides assistance to policy makers with respect to implications of policy options or external influences on the economic system. This report investigates the regional economic impacts resulting from the current mountain pine beetle infestation in the Northern Interior Forest Region of British Columbia, Canada. Two study areas within the Northern Interior are investigated: the Nadina Forest District (comprised of the Morice Timber Supply Area and the Lakes Timber Supply Area) and the Prince George Timber Supply Area (also known as the McGregor Model Forest). Baseline general equilibrium economic databases are constructed for each region using primary and secondary sources. The databases are then used in the construction of a computable general equilibrium model for each region, which are used to simulate future economic indicator levels under different scenarios related to the impact of the mountain pine beetle on timber supply. The potential offsetting impacts of increased agricultural activity and tourism activity are also examined. The scenario analysis provides similar results for both regions. On average, reductions in timber supply resulting from the mountain pine beetle infestation will have serious negative consequences for all sectors of each economy. In both cases, increased tourism activity could partially or fully offset the impact on employment; it will offset the negative impact on monetary indicators to lesser extents. Increased traditional agricultural activity has minimal offsetting impact in terms of employment and monetary indicators. The computable general equilibrium models constructed for each region provide a decision support tool that can assist decision-makers with mitigation planning for the anticipated reductions in timber supply. Resume Une analyse d’impact economique aide les responsables des politiques a evaluer les repercussions des diverses options strategiques ou des facteurs externes sur le systeme economique. Le present rapport evalue l’impact economique regional de l’infestation de dendroctones du pin ponderosa qui sevit a l’heure actuelle dans la region forestiere de l’Interieur nord de la Colombie-Britannique, au Canada. Deux secteurs sont a l’etude : le district forestier de Nadina (qui comprend la zone d’approvisionnement forestier de Morice et la zone d’approvisionnement forestier de Lakes) ainsi que la zone d’approvisionnement forestier de Prince George (aussi connue sous le nom de Foret modele McGregor). Des bases de donnees economiques de reference sur l’equilibre general sont mises sur pied pour chacune des regions au moyen de sources primaires et secondaires. Ces bases de donnees permettront de bâtir des modeles informatiques d’equilibre general pour chacune des regions; ces modeles serviront a simuler les niveaux futurs des indicateurs economiques dans diverses situations liees a l’impact du dendroctone du pin ponderosa sur l’approvisionnement en bois. On y etudie egalement les effets compensateurs possibles de l’accroissement de l’activite agricole et touristique. L’analyse des diverses situations a donne des resultats semblables dans les deux regions. On a constate que, en moyenne, la reduction des stocks d’arbres attribuable a l’infestation de dendroctones du pin ponderosa aura de lourdes consequences pour tous les secteurs des deux regions. Dans les deux cas, l’accroissement de l’activite touristique pourrait compenser en partie ou entierement les pertes d’emploi, mais cela aura une moins grande incidence sur les repercussions negatives affectant les indicateurs monetaires. L’intensification de l’activite agricole traditionnelle n’influe que tres peu sur l’emploi et les indicateurs monetaires. Les modeles informatiques d’equilibre general mis au point pour chacune des regions offrent un outil d’aide a la decision qui peut etre utile aux decideurs pour planifier des mesures d’attenuation relativement a la reduction prevue des stocks d’arbres.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".