Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
One of the major tasks of evolutionary biology is the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular data. This problem is of critical importance in almost all areas of biology and has a very clear mathematical formulation. The evolutionary model is given by a Markov chain on the true evolutionary tree. Given samples from this Markov chain at the leaves of the tree, the goal is to reconstruct the evolutionary tree. It is crucial to minimize the number of samples, i.e., the length of genetic sequences, as it is constrained by the underlying biology, the price of sequencing etc.\nIt is well known that in order to reconstruct a tree on n leaves, sequences of length Ω(log n) are needed. It was conjectured by M. Steel that for the CFN evolutionary model, if the mutation probability on all edges of the tree is less than p∗ = ( √ 2 −1)/23/2 than the tree can be recovered from sequences of length O(log n). This was proven by the second author in the special case where the tree is “balanced”. The second author also proved that if all edges have mutation probability larger than p∗ then the length needed is nΩ(1). This “phase-transition ” in the number of samples needed is closely related to the phase transition for the reconstruction problem (or extremality of free measure) studied extensively in statistical physics and probability.\nHere we complete the proof of Steel’s conjecture and give a reconstruction algorithm using optimal (up to a multiplicative constant) sequence length. Our results further extend to obtain optimal reconstruction algorithm for the Jukes-Cantor model with short edges. All reconstruction algorithms run in time polynomial in the sequence length.\nThe algorithm and the proofs are based on a novel combination of combinatorial, metric and probabilistic arguments.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it