Generating Realistic Sequences of Customer-Level Transactions for Retail Datasets
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In order to better engage with customers, retailers rely on extensive customer and product databases which allows them to better understand customer behaviour and purchasing patterns. This has long been a challenging task as customer modelling is a multi-faceted, noisy and time-dependent problem. The most common way to tackle this problem is indirectly through task-specific supervised learning prediction problems, with relatively little literature on modelling a customer by directly simulating their future transactions. In this paper we propose a method for generating realistic sequences of baskets that a given customer is likely to purchase over a period of time. Customer embedding representations are learned using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) which takes into account the entire sequence of transaction data. Given the customer state at a specific point in time, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) is trained to generate a plausible basket of products for the following week. The newly generated basket is then fed back into the RNN to update the customer's state. The GAN is thus used in tandem with the RNN module in a pipeline alternating between basket generation and customer state updating steps. This allows for sampling over a distribution of a customer's future sequence of baskets, which then can be used to gain insight into how to service the customer more effectively. The methodology is empirically shown to produce baskets that appear similar to real baskets and enjoy many common properties, including frequencies of different product types, brands, and prices. Furthermore, the generated data is able to replicate most of the strongest sequential patterns that exist between product types in the real data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it