Modeling longitudinal imaging biomarkers with parametric Bayesian multi‐task learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Longitudinal imaging biomarkers are invaluable for understanding the course of neurodegeneration, promising the ability to track disease progression and to detect disease earlier than cross-sectional biomarkers. To properly realize their potential, biomarker trajectory models must be robust to both under-sampling and measurement errors and should be able to integrate multi-modal information to improve trajectory inference and prediction. Here we present a parametric Bayesian multi-task learning based approach to modeling univariate trajectories across subjects that addresses these criteria. Our approach learns multiple subjects' trajectories within a single model that allows for different types of information sharing, that is, coupling, across subjects. It optimizes a combination of uncoupled, fully coupled and kernel coupled models. Kernel-based coupling allows linking subjects' trajectories based on one or more biomarker measures. We demonstrate this using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data, where we model longitudinal trajectories of MRI-derived cortical volumes in neurodegeneration, with coupling based on APOE genotype, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and amyloid PET-based biomarkers. In addition to detecting established disease effects, we detect disease related changes within the insula that have not received much attention within the literature. Due to its sensitivity in detecting disease effects, its competitive predictive performance and its ability to learn the optimal parameter covariance from data rather than choosing a specific set of random and fixed effects a priori, we propose that our model can be used in place of or in addition to linear mixed effects models when modeling biomarker trajectories. A software implementation of the method is publicly available.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".