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The Crowd Classification Problem

2019· article· en· W2965430906 on OpenAlex
Joshua Becker, Douglas Guilbeault, Edward B. Smith

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueAcademy of Management Proceedings · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicMisinformation and Its Impacts
Canadian institutionsKellogg's (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVotingComputer scienceGroup decision-makingContingencyFraming (construction)Framing effectSocial choice theoryPoint (geometry)Artificial intelligenceMachine learningSocial psychologyPsychologyMathematicsMathematical economicsPersuasionPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Decades of research has argued that social information processing can improve belief accuracy as measured at both the group level and the individual level. However, we show both theoretically and empirically that this effect is limited to numeric estimates. In discrete choice estimates, also known as classification tasks–such as yes/no decisions, or selecting the better of two options–social influence simply amplifies the majority opinion, regardless of the accuracy of that opinion. As a result, initially inaccurate groups become less accurate but more confident. This effect is not due only to the type of information exchanged, but applies in more generally any case where group members are polled on a discrete choice, as in a voting process. These results point to the need for a contingency theory of collective intelligence identifying the types of decisions for which social information processing can improve outcomes. In the case of estimation accuracy, these results also point to a simple but effective strategy: organizations should focus on aggregating beliefs about numeric quantities, and avoid framing problems as a discrete choice until as late as possible in the decision process.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.919
Threshold uncertainty score0.296

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.031
GPT teacher head0.317
Teacher spread0.285 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it