Multi-scale Information Diffusion Prediction with Reinforced Recurrent Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Information diffusion prediction is an important task which studies how information items spread among users. With the success of deep learning techniques, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have shown their powerful capability in modeling information diffusion as sequential data. However, previous works focused on either microscopic diffusion prediction which aims at guessing the next influenced user or macroscopic diffusion prediction which estimates the total numbers of influenced users during the diffusion process. To the best of our knowledge, no previous works have suggested a unified model for both microscopic and macroscopic scales. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-scale diffusion prediction model based on reinforcement learning (RL). RL incorporates the macroscopic diffusion size information into the RNN-based microscopic diffusion model by addressing the non-differentiable problem. We also employ an effective structural context extraction strategy to utilize the underlying social graph information. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models on both microscopic and macroscopic diffusion predictions on three real-world datasets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".