Prognostic Performance of Kidney Volume Measurement for Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Comparative Study of Ellipsoid vs. Manual Segmentation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Total kidney volume (TKV) is a validated prognostic biomarker for risk assessment in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). TKV by manual segmentation (MS) is the "gold standard" but is time-consuming and requires expertise. The purpose of this study was to compare TKV-based prognostic performance by ellipsoid (EL) vs. MS in a large cohort of patients. Cross-sectional study of 308 patients seen at a tertiary referral center; all had a standardized MRI with typical imaging of ADPKD. An experienced radiologist blinded to patient clinical results performed all TKV measurements by EL and MS. We assessed the agreement of TKV measurements by intraclass correlation(ICC) and Bland-Altman plot and also how the disagreement of the two methods impact the prognostic performance of the Mayo Clinic Imaging Classification (MCIC). We found a high ICC of TKV measurements (0.991, p < 0.001) between EL vs. MS; however, 5.5% of the cases displayed disagreement of TKV measurements >20%. We also found a high degree of agreement of the individual MCIC risk classes (i.e. 1A to 1E) with a Cohen's weighted-kappa of 0.89; but 42 cases (13.6%) were misclassified by EL with no misclassification spanning more than one risk class. The sensitivity and specificity of EL in distinguishing low-risk (1A-B) from high-risk (1C-E) MCIC prognostic grouping were 96.6% and 96.1%, respectively. Overall, we found an excellent agreement of TKV-based risk assessment between EL and MS. However, caution is warranted for patients with MCIC 1B and 1C, as misclassification can have therapeutic consequence.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.027 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".