Prospective evaluation and comparison of the predictive ability of different frailty scores to predict outcomes in geriatric trauma patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Different frailty scores have been proposed to measure frailty. No study has compared their predictive ability to predict outcomes in trauma patients. The aim of our study was to compare the predictive ability of different frailty scores to predict complications, mortality, discharge disposition, and 30-day readmission in trauma patients. METHODS: We performed a 2-year (2016-2017) prospective cohort analysis of all geriatric (age, >65 years) trauma patients. We calculated the following frailty scores on each patient; the Trauma-Specific Frailty Index (TSFI), the Modified Frailty Index (mFI) derived from the Canada Study of Health and Aging, the Rockwood Frailty Score (RFS), and the International Association of Nutrition and Aging 5-item a frailty scale (FS). Predictive models, using both unadjusted and adjusted logistic regressions, were created for each outcome. The unadjusted c-statistic was used to compare the predictive ability of each model. RESULTS: A total of 341 patients were enrolled. Mean age was 76 ± 9 years, median Injury Severity Score was 13 [9-18], and median Glasgow Coma Scale score was 15 [12-15]. The unadjusted models indicated that both the TSFI and the RFS had comparable predictive value, as indicated by their unadjusted c-statistics, for mortality, in-hospital complications, skilled nursing facility disposition and 30-day readmission. Both TSFI and RFS models had unadjusted c-statistics indicating a relatively strong predictive ability for all outcomes. The unadjusted mFI and FS models did not have a strong predictive ability for predicting mortality and in-hospital complications. They also had a lower predictive ability for skilled nursing facility disposition and 30-day readmissions. CONCLUSION: There are significant differences in the predictive ability of the four commonly used frailty scores. The TSFI and the RFS are better predictors of outcomes compared with the mFI and the FS. The TSFI is easy to calculate and might be used as a universal frailty score in geriatric trauma patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, level III.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".