Estimating Morbidity Rates Based on Routine Electronic Health Records in Primary Care: Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Routinely recorded electronic health records (EHRs) from general practitioners (GPs) are increasingly available and provide valuable data for estimating incidence and prevalence rates of diseases in the population. This paper describes how we developed an algorithm to construct episodes of illness based on EHR data to calculate morbidity rates. OBJECTIVE: The goal of the research was to develop a simple and uniform algorithm to construct episodes of illness based on electronic health record data and develop a method to calculate morbidity rates based on these episodes of illness. METHODS: The algorithm was developed in discussion rounds with two expert groups and tested with data from the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research Primary Care Database, which consisted of a representative sample of 219 general practices covering a total population of 867,140 listed patients in 2012. RESULTS: All 685 symptoms and diseases in the International Classification of Primary Care version 1 were categorized as acute symptoms and diseases, long-lasting reversible diseases, or chronic diseases. For the nonchronic diseases, a contact-free interval (the period in which it is likely that a patient will visit the GP again if a medical complaint persists) was defined. The constructed episode of illness starts with the date of diagnosis and ends at the time of the last encounter plus half of the duration of the contact-free interval. Chronic diseases were considered irreversible and for these diseases no contact-free interval was needed. CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm was developed to construct episodes of illness based on routinely recorded EHR data to estimate morbidity rates. The algorithm constitutes a simple and uniform way of using EHR data and can easily be applied in other registries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".