The relevance of larval biology on spatiotemporal patterns of pathogen connectivity among open-marine salmon farms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Warming waters are changing marine pathogen dispersal patterns and infectivity worldwide. Coupled biological–physical modelling has been used in many systems to determine the connectivity of metapopulations via infectious disease particles. Here we model the connectivity of sea lice larvae (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) among salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia, Canada, using a coupled biological–physical model. The physical model simulated pathogen dispersal, while the biological component influenced the survival and developmental rates of the sea lice. Model results predicted high temporal variability in connectivity strength among farms, an emergent effect from the interacting parts of the simulation (dispersion versus survival and development). Drivers of temporal variability were disentangled using generalized additive modeling, which revealed the variability was most strongly impacted by the spring freshet, which can act as a natural aid for sea lice control in the Broughton Archipelago. Our results suggest that farm management strategies can benefit by accounting for short-term spikes in regional pathogen connectivity among farms. Additionally, future scenarios of a warming climate with reduced snowpack can make sea lice control more challenging.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".