Widespread Effects of Climate Change on Local Plant Diversity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as “The Anthropocene” [1Lewis S.L. Maslin M.A. Defining the anthropocene.Nature. 2015; 519: 171-180Crossref PubMed Scopus (1448) Google Scholar]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2Vellend M. Baeten L. Myers-Smith I.H. Elmendorf S.C. Beauséjour R. Brown C.D. De Frenne P. Verheyen K. Wipf S. Global meta-analysis reveals no net change in local-scale plant biodiversity over time.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2013; 110: 19456-19459Crossref PubMed Scopus (349) Google Scholar, 3Dornelas M. Gotelli N.J. McGill B. Shimadzu H. Moyes F. Sievers C. Magurran A.E. Assemblage time series reveal biodiversity change but not systematic loss.Science. 2014; 344: 296-299Crossref PubMed Scopus (782) Google Scholar, 4Vellend M. Dornelas M. Baeten L. Beauséjour R. Brown C.D. De Frenne P. Elmendorf S.C. Gotelli N.J. Moyes F. Myers-Smith I.H. et al.Estimates of local biodiversity change over time stand up to scrutiny.Ecology. 2017; 98: 583-590Crossref PubMed Scopus (88) Google Scholar]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (−4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the “perturbation” of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".