Heart rate recovery and morbidity after noncardiac surgery: Planned secondary analysis of two prospective, multi-centre, blinded observational studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Impaired cardiac vagal function, quantified preoperatively as slower heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise, is independently associated with perioperative myocardial injury. Parasympathetic (vagal) dysfunction may also promote (extra-cardiac) multi-organ dysfunction, although perioperative data are lacking. Assuming that cardiac vagal activity, and therefore heart rate recovery response, is a marker of brainstem parasympathetic dysfunction, we hypothesized that impaired HRR would be associated with a higher incidence of morbidity after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: In two prospective, blinded, observational cohort studies, we established the definition of impaired vagal function in terms of the HRR threshold that is associated with perioperative myocardial injury (HRR ≤ 12 beats min-1 (bpm), 60 seconds after cessation of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome of this secondary analysis was all-cause morbidity three and five days after surgery, defined using the Post-Operative Morbidity Survey. Secondary outcomes of this analysis were type of morbidity and time to become morbidity-free. Logistic regression and Cox regression tested for the association between HRR and morbidity. Results are presented as odds/hazard ratios [OR or HR; (95% confidence intervals). RESULTS: 882/1941 (45.4%) patients had HRR≤12bpm. All-cause morbidity within 5 days of surgery was more common in 585/822 (71.2%) patients with HRR≤12bpm, compared to 718/1119 (64.2%) patients with HRR>12bpm (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.67); p = 0.001). HRR≤12bpm was associated with more frequent episodes of pulmonary (OR:1.31 (1.05-1.62);p = 0.02)), infective (OR:1.38 (1.10-1.72); p = 0.006), renal (OR:1.91 (1.30-2.79); p = 0.02)), cardiovascular (OR:1.39 (1.15-1.69); p<0.001)), neurological (OR:1.73 (1.11-2.70); p = 0.02)) and pain morbidity (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.68); p = 0.001) within 5 days of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-organ dysfunction is more common in surgical patients with cardiac vagal dysfunction, defined as HRR ≤ 12 bpm after preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: ISRCTN88456378.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.018 | 0.020 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".