Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster in Canada: a modelling study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Two vaccines against herpes zoster are currently authorized for use in Canada: the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine and live attenuated zoster vaccine. We compared the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these 2 vaccines. METHODS: We used a decision analytic static cohort model parametrized with Canadian epidemiologic and economic data. We performed the economic analysis from the health care system perspective, using a lifetime horizon and a 3% discount rate for costs and benefits. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, relative to no vaccination. We ran 30 000 simulations varying all model parameters, including vaccine costs, efficacy and waning. RESULTS: The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) was higher for the live attenuated zoster vaccine than for the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine for all herpes zoster-related events at all ages. For example, in persons exactly 65 years old, for herpes zoster, median NNV was 21 (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 13-31) versus 8 (90% UI 6-18), and for postherpetic neuralgia, NNV was 64 (90% UI 33-93) versus 31 (90% UI 23-73). For the recombinant vaccine, the median cost-effectiveness ratios varied between cost-saving and $25 881 per QALY gained for adults aged 50 years or older. For the live vaccine, the cost-effectiveness ratios varied between cost-saving and $130 587 per QALY gained and were less than $45 000 per QALY gained only for those 65 to 75 years old. Given its higher efficacy, we estimated that the cost for the complete series of the recombinant vaccine could be $150 to $200 more than the cost of the live vaccine and still be considered cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Our model predicted that the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine is likely cost-effective in Canada for adults 60 years or older, and is likely more cost-effective than live attenuated zoster vaccine. These results have informed updated national and provincial recommendations on herpes zoster vaccination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".