Tree-ring correlations suggest links between moderate earthquakes and distant rockfalls in the Patagonian Cordillera
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Earthquakes with magnitudes M > 7 can trigger large landslides and rockfalls at epicenter distances of up to 400 km, whereas moderate shaking (M = 5–7) is generally thought to result in abundant co-seismic mass movements in the vicinity of the epicenter. Although one might anticipate that large magnitude earthquakes off the Chilean coast would result in abundant rockfall in the Patagonian Cordillera, only limited research has explored this hypothesis. Here, we use tree-ring records from 63 cross-sections of century-old (103.9 ± 40.1 yr) Nothofagus pumilio trees to develop a calendar-dated record of small rockfall events (101–102 m3) on a talus slope located next to Monte Fitz Roy (El Chaltén, Argentina; 49°4′S, 72°57′W). The resulting rockfall record is used to infer that subduction zone seismicity at the Triple Junction and intraplate shaking around Lago Argentino almost systematically caused rockfall activity at this site, even if seismicity occurred at large distances (up to 300 km away) and with moderate intensity (M = 5–7). About one third of the rockfalls are triggered by factors other than earthquakes, predominantly in spring when freeze-thaw cycles occur frequently at the site. Despite the fact that seismicity is not the only trigger of rockfall activity at Cerro Crestón, at the foot of Monte Vespignani, we conclude that, in regions where topographic amplification plays a role, small rockfalls can be triggered by earthquakes of moderate intensity at large distances from the epicenter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".