Hot tops, cold bottoms: Synergistic climate warming and shielding effects increase carbon burial in lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this article, we challenge the notion that global warming stimulates organic matter mineralization and increases greenhouse gas emissions in lakes via direct temperature effects. We show that the interactive effects of warming and transparency loss due to eutrophication or browning overrides atmospheric warming alone. Thermal shielding enables a longer and more stable stratification that results in bottom‐water cooling, prolonged anoxia, and enhanced carbon preservation in a large proportion of global lakes. These effects are strongest in shallow lakes where an additional burial of 4.5 Tg C yr−1 increases current global estimates by 9%. Despite more burial, the net global warming potential of lakes will increase via enhanced methane production, related to prolonged periods of anoxia, rather than warming. Our understanding of how whole‐lake carbon cycling responds to climate change needs revision, as the synergistic influence of warming and transparency loss has much broader ecosystem level functional consequences.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".