An expectation-maximization algorithm enables accurate ecological modeling using longitudinal microbiome sequencing data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The dynamics of microbial communities is driven by a range of interactions from symbiosis to predator-prey relationships, the majority of which are poorly understood. With the increasing availability of high-throughput microbiome taxonomic profiling data, it is now conceivable to directly learn the ecological models that explicitly define microbial interactions and explain community dynamics. The applicability of these approaches is severely limited by the lack of accurate absolute cell density measurements (biomass). METHODS: We present a new computational approach that resolves this key limitation in the inference of generalized Lotka-Volterra models (gLVMs) by coupling biomass estimation and model inference with an expectation-maximization algorithm (BEEM). RESULTS: BEEM outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for inferring gLVMs, while simultaneously eliminating the need for additional experimental biomass data as input. BEEM's application to previously inaccessible public datasets (due to the lack of biomass data) allowed us to construct ecological models of microbial communities in the human gut on a per-individual basis, revealing personalized dynamics and keystone species. CONCLUSIONS: BEEM addresses a key bottleneck in "systems analysis" of microbiomes by enabling accurate inference of ecological models from high throughput sequencing data without the need for experimental biomass measurements.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".