Inter‐observer variation in image interpretation and the prognostic importance of non‐expansile lung in malignant pleural effusion
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Non-expansile lung (NEL) frequently complicates management of malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and is an important factor in clinical practice and trials. NEL is frequently diagnosed on a single radiographic observation, but neither the inter-observer agreement of this approach nor the prognostic importance of NEL in MPE has been reported. METHODS: A multicentre retrospective cohort study was performed in two UK pleural centres. NEL was defined as <50% pleural re-apposition on post-drainage radiographs by primary and secondary assessors at each site. Inter-observer agreement was assessed by Cohen's kappa (κ). Kaplan-Meier methodology and multivariate Cox models were used to assess the prognostic impact of NEL versus no NEL and 'complete NEL' versus 'complete expansion', based on a single assessor's results from each site. RESULTS: NEL was identified by the primary assessor in 33 of 97 (34%) in Cohort 1 and 15 of 86 (17%) in Cohort 2. Inter-observer agreement between assessors was only fair-to-moderate (Cohort 1 κ: 0.38 (95% CI: 0.21-0.55), Cohort 2 κ: 0.51 (95% CI: 0.30-0.72)). In both cohorts, NEL was associated with shorter median overall survival (Cohort 1: 188 vs 371 days, Cohort 2: 192 vs 412 days). This prognostic association was independent in Cohort 1 (hazard ratio (HR): 2.19, 95% CI: 1.31-3.66) but not in Cohort 2 (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 0.71-2.87). Survival was inferior in both cohorts in cases of complete NEL versus complete expansion. CONCLUSION: Radiographic NEL is common but inter-observer agreement is only fair-to-moderate. NEL is associated with adverse survival. These data do not support the use of single radiographic assessments to classify NEL.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it