Quantifying Fracture Networks Inferred From Microseismic Point Clouds by a Gaussian Mixture Model With Physical Constraints
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Microseismicity is generated by slip on fractures and faults and can be used to infer natural or anthropogenic deformation processes in the subsurface. Yet identifying patterns and fractures from microseismic point clouds is a major challenge that typically relies on the skill and judgment of practitioners. Clustering has previously been applied to tackle this problem, but with limited success. Here, we introduce a probabilistic clustering method to identify fracture networks, based on a Gaussian mixture model algorithm with physical constraints. This method is applied to a rich microseismic data set recorded during the hydraulic fracturing of eight horizontal wells in western Canada. We show that the method is effective for distinguishing hydraulic‐fracture‐created events from induced seismicity. These fractures follow a log‐normal distribution and reflect the physical mechanisms of the hydraulic fracturing process. We conclude that this method has wide applicability for interpreting natural and anthropogenic processes in the subsurface.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".