An International Society of Bipolar Disorders task force report: Precursors and prodromes of bipolar disorder
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To clarify the clinical features preceding the onset of bipolar disorder (BD) has become a public health priority for the prevention of high morbidity and mortality. BD remains frequently under- or misdiagnosed, and under- or mistreated, often for years. METHODS: We assessed the predictive value of precursors and prodromes of BD. We assessed precursors of first-lifetime manic or hypomanic episodes with/without mixed features in retrospective and prospective studies. The task force evaluated and summarized separately assessments of familial risk, premorbid personality traits, retrospective, and prospective studies. RESULTS: Cyclothymic features, a family history of BD, retrospectively reported attenuated manic symptoms, prospectively identified subthreshold symptoms of hypomania, recurrence of depression, panic anxiety and psychotic features, have been identified as clinical precursors of BD. The prodromal symptoms like [hypo]mania often appears to be long enough to encourage early identification and timely intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of any risk factor identified remains largely unknown. Prospective controlled studies are urgently needed for prevention and effective treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".