The effect of Housing in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism of Consumption in Euro Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the indirect effect housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) of consumption. This is done by following the method of Giuliodori (2005) and estimating structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR) for 16 developed countries, from the first quarter of 1970 to the last quarter of 2018. For each country, two Impulse response functions of two different SVARs are compared. The first one in which house prices are treated endogenously and the second one in which house prices are treated exogenously. This second model is created to remove the indirect effect housing has on consumption, while keeping the direct effect. The paper finds that in countries with relatively larger mortgage markets the indirect effect of housing in the MTM of consumption is larger. The results are consistent over time, including the financial crisis of 2008 and in the euro regime.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".