MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2972106091 · doi:10.5539/res.v11n3p50

A World in the Balance: The Economy Towards Recession

2019· article· en· W2972106091 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Giovanni Antonio Cossiga

Bibliographic record

VenueReview of European Studies · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic Theory and Policy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRecessionEconomicsMarket liquidityDebtVirtuous circle and vicious circleFiscal policyMonetary economicsBalance (ability)Keynesian economicsMacroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The global economy is moving uncertainly towards recession. An economy in the balance that remains uncertain on the threshold of recession, relying on the benevolent contribution of support policies. Without the help of fiscal policy and the complacency of the Central Banks through new liquidity injections, and therefore through easy credit, it can certainly be admitted that the recession would tend to prevail. But the recession is not a bad thing in itself, it’s rather the treatment for the evil afflicting the economy: the growing instability of economic systems under the increasing weight of excessive liquidity and an abnormal increase of public and private debt. The result of this negative equation is the growth of the economy sustained by abundant liquidity and credit availability and then a weak and doped development. A development line that cannot go on without the resources of politics. The problem is therefore whether this dependency condition can last. That is, if the economy can find the virtuous energies to reabsorb the accumulated excesses through a sustainable growth. The compulsive use of fiscal policy to fight the damage caused by the serious 2008-2010 crisis has undoubtedly reduced the economic and above all social damage due to the loss of jobs, and therefore helped the recovery. However, the massive use of public debt could hide a dark side. First of all, it fueled a legacy of recessive prices and weak development. And this, despite the large river of liquidity injected into the system by the Central Banks. However, the availability of new liquidity did not defeat the tendency of the economy to deflation and then couldn’t support development, which appears generally weak. The US case, which sees the relaunch of development by the fiscal reform that reduces taxation particularly in favor of higher incomes, doesn’t seem to be an exception. However, we are facing economies that require the continuous support of political policies in order to confirm their (weak) growth. On the other hand, it’s quite clear the dark side created by the trap "liquidity - weak growth" now affecting the global development, although without this trick the world in the balance could fall into recession.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.938
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.067
GPT teacher head0.302
Teacher spread0.235 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueReview of European StudiesSame topicEconomic Theory and PolicyFrench-language works237,207