Decadal increase in Arctic dimethylsulfide emission
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dimethylsulfide (DMS), a gas produced by marine microbial food webs, promotes aerosol formation in pristine atmospheres, altering cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. Recent studies suggest that DMS controls aerosol formation in the summertime Arctic atmosphere and call for an assessment of pan-Arctic DMS emission (EDMS) in a context of dramatic ecosystem changes. Using a remote sensing algorithm, we show that summertime EDMS from ice-free waters increased at a mean rate of 13.3 ± 6.7 Gg S decade −1 (∼33% decade −1 ) north of 70°N between 1998 and 2016. This trend, mostly explained by the reduction in sea-ice extent, is consistent with independent atmospheric measurements showing an increasing trend of methane sulfonic acid, a DMS oxidation product. Extrapolation to an ice-free Arctic summer could imply a 2.4-fold (±1.2) increase in EDMS compared to present emission. However, unexpected regime shifts in Arctic geo- and ecosystems could result in future EDMS departure from the predicted range. Superimposed on the positive trend, EDMS shows substantial interannual changes and nonmonotonic multiyear trends, reflecting the interplay between physical forcing, ice retreat patterns, and phytoplankton productivity. Our results provide key constraints to determine whether increasing marine sulfur emissions, and resulting aerosol–cloud interactions, will moderate or accelerate Arctic warming in the context of sea-ice retreat and increasing low-level cloud cover.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".