The hierarchy-of-effects model and prelaunch forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pre-release forecasting of the opening box office revenue allows a studio to prepare a more effective marketing campaign and budget allocation. The purpose of this study is to forecast the opening box office revenue using attitudinal tracking measures. The proposed model aims to establish a relationship between the opening box office and the tracking data of the hierarchy-of-effects (HOE) constructs, which managers can use as the target of marketing planning. To test the causal relationships between the HOE constructs and opening box office revenue, we estimate a serial mediation model that incorporates direct and indirect effects of advertising to the HOE constructs with the covariates including marketing efforts, movie characteristics, and viewer demographics. Based on the posterior predictive distributions of the model parameters, we obtain the forecasts of opening box office revenue as new data become available. The validation results show highly encouraging predictive accuracy, indicating the benefit of utilizing attitudinal tracking.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".