Stock Price Synchronicity and Current and Potential Credit Ratings
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines whether the stock prices reflet the relevant information on the companies´current and potential credit ratings. This investigation was carried out from the construct of stock price synchronicity, that is, the more the stock prices reflect the specific information of a certain company, the less the synchronicity of these prices in relation to the market general information tends to be. It would imply that the stock prices tend to be more informative on the companies´potential in generating future economic benefit and on their risk levels. For carrying out this study, information on the companies which have their shares listed at the Brazilian Stock Exchange (Brazil, Stock Exchange and Over-the-counter – B3) from 2010 to 2015 were analyzed. The results obtained point that the stock prices not only embody information on the alterations of the companies´s current credit ratings regarding the upgrade, but also reflect, with certain antecipation, the potential credit ratings. Nevertheless, the results indicate that not every credit rating class is associated with relevant information for the capital market.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".