Earthquake-Rotated Headstones as a Means of Re-evaluating Epicentral Location of the 1944 Massena-Cornwall Earthquake: New York, United States and Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Massena-Cornwall earthquake (September 5th, 1944) is the largest earthquake in New York state history. Two epicenters have been previously proposed (Milne, 1949; Dewey and Gordon, 1984); however, they are separated by 15 km, an error that could associate each proposed epicenter with two different local faults. Due to the lack of standardized seismic-array data, there is value in approaching this event using an unconventional data set. The methodology of MacDonald and Wentworth (1952) was executed through ArcMap 10.5.1 to yield an area most likely to contain the epicenter. One-hundred fifty-four earthquake-rotated headstones from 15 cemeteries within ~35 km of Massena, New York/Cornwall, Ontario were measured for angle of rotation via a digital goniometer (0.1 ̊ resolution). The mean angle of rotation is 1.9° (cf., 0.1° for unaffected, post-1944 headstones: p<0.0001), independent of rotation direction. Factoring in the average strike of headstones in each cemetery, an octant was projected based on whether the cemetery had predominantly experienced clockwise or counter-clockwise rotation. The area of densest overlap between the projected octants is an ~20km2 area centered in the Saint Lawrence River (proposed epicenter at N45.014, W74.815) six miles northeast of Massena, NY. This area is bisected by the Gloucester Fault; an extension of the Ottawa-Bonnechere Graben. This project is an improvement on previous studies of the 1944-rotated headstones (e.g., Berkey, 1945) by analyzing quantitative rotational data within an ArcMap framework. These refined data implicate a rupture along an extension of the Gloucester Fault—a potential threat to the nearby Moses-Saunders Power Dam.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".