Plasma Androgen Receptor Copy Number Status at Emergence of Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Multicohort Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE Increases in androgen receptor ( AR) copy number (CN) can be detected in plasma DNA when patients develop metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. We aim to evaluate the association between AR CN as a continuous variable and clinical outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS PCR2023 was an international, multi-institution, open-label, phase II study of abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone (AAP) or abiraterone acetate plus dexamethasone that included plasma AR assessment as a predefined exploratory secondary end point. Plasma AR CN data (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01867710 ) from this study (n = 133) were pooled with data from the following three other cohorts: cohort A, which was treated with either AAP or enzalutamide (n = 73); the PREMIERE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02288936 ) of biomarkers for enzalutamide (n = 94); and a phase II trial from British Columbia (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02125357 ) that randomly assigned men to either AAP or enzalutamide (n = 201). The primary outcome measures for the biomarker analysis were overall survival and progression-free survival. RESULTS Using multivariable fractional polynomials analysis using Cox regression models, a nonlinear relationship between plasma AR CN and outcome was identified for overall survival, where initially for small incremental gains in CN there was a large added hazard ratio that plateaued at higher CN. The CN cut point associated with the highest local hazard ratio was 1.92. A similar nonlinear association was observed with progression-free survival. In an exploratory analysis of PCR2023, the time from start of long-term androgen-deprivation therapy to start of AAP or abiraterone acetate plus dexamethasone was significantly shorter in patients with plasma AR CN of 1.92 or greater than patients with plasma AR CN of less than 1.92 (43 v 130 weeks, respectively; P = .005). This was confirmed in cohort A ( P = .003), the PREMIERE cohort ( P = .03), and the British Colombia cohort ( P = .003). CONCLUSION Patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer can be dichotomized by a plasma AR CN cut point of 1.92. Plasma AR CN value of 1.92 or greater identifies aggressive disease that is poorly responsive to AR targeting and is associated with a prior short response to primary androgen-deprivation therapy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".