Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of D. ponderosae according to both historical climate data (1987–2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021–2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for D. ponderosae are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north–south direction are larger than these in the east–west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".