Multiple intrinsic markers identify carry-over effects from wintering to breeding sites for three Nearctic–Neotropical migrant swallows
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Carry-over effects from one stage of the annual cycle to subsequent stages can have profound effects on individual fitness. In migratory birds, much research has been devoted to examining such effects from the nonbreeding to the breeding period. We investigated potential carry-over effects influencing spring body condition, breeding phenology, and performance for 3 species of sympatric, declining Nearctic–Neotropical migratory swallows: Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia), Barn Swallow (Hirundo rustica), and Cliff Swallow (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota). To examine carry-over effects, we used structural equation modeling and several intrinsic markers, including stable isotope (δ 2H, δ 13C, and δ 15N) and corticosterone (CORTf) values from winter molted-feathers, and changes in telomere length between breeding seasons. We found support for carry-over effects for all 3 species, however, the specific relationships varied between species and sexes. Effects leading to lower breeding performance were only observed in male Bank, female Barn, and female and male Cliff Swallows. In most cases, carry-over effects were attributed to differences in stable isotope values (most commonly with δ 2H) presumably related to differences in winter habitat use, but, for Cliff Swallows, negative carry-over effects were also linked to higher CORTf values and greater rates of telomere shortening. This work provides further support for the potential role of nonbreeding conditions on population declines, and indicates how multiple intrinsic markers can be used to provide information on ecological conditions throughout the annual cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".