Inference of a Mesoscopic Population Model from Population Spike Trains
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations requires models exhibiting a wide range of behaviors while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging to fit such mechanistic spiking networks at the single-neuron scale to empirical population data. To close this gap, we propose to fit such data at a mesoscale, using a mechanistic but low-dimensional and, hence, statistically tractable model. The mesoscopic representation is obtained by approximating a population of neurons as multiple homogeneous pools of neurons and modeling the dynamics of the aggregate population activity within each pool. We derive the likelihood of both single-neuron and connectivity parameters given this activity, which can then be used to optimize parameters by gradient ascent on the log likelihood or perform Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We illustrate this approach using a model of generalized integrate-and-fire neurons for which mesoscopic dynamics have been previously derived and show that both single-neuron and connectivity parameters can be recovered from simulated data. In particular, our inference method extracts posterior correlations between model parameters, which define parameter subsets able to reproduce the data. We compute the Bayesian posterior for combinations of parameters using MCMC sampling and investigate how the approximations inherent in a mesoscopic population model affect the accuracy of the inferred single-neuron parameters.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it