Use of machine learning algorithms for prediction of fetal risk using cardiotocographic data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: month of life. Intrapartum complications are one of the major causes of perinatal mortality. Fetal cardiotocograph (CTGs) can be used as a monitoring tool to identify high-risk women during labor. AIM: The objective of this study was to study the precision of machine learning algorithm techniques on CTG data in identifying high-risk fetuses. METHODS: CTG data of 2126 pregnant women were obtained from the University of California Irvine Machine Learning Repository. Ten different machine learning classification models were trained using CTG data. Sensitivity, precision, and F1 score for each class and overall accuracy of each model were obtained to predict normal, suspect, and pathological fetal states. Model with best performance on specified metrics was then identified. RESULTS: Determined by obstetricians' interpretation of CTGs as gold standard, 70% of them were normal, 20% were suspect, and 10% had a pathological fetal state. On training data, the classification models generated by XGBoost, decision tree, and random forest had high precision (>96%) to predict the suspect and pathological state of the fetus based on the CTG tracings. However, on testing data, XGBoost model had the highest precision to predict a pathological fetal state (>92%). CONCLUSION: The classification model developed using XGBoost technique had the highest prediction accuracy for an adverse fetal outcome. Lay health-care workers in low- and middle-income countries can use this model to triage pregnant women in remote areas for early referral and further management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".