Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the first-order probabilistic programming language introduced by Staton et al. (2016), but with an additional language construct, $\mathbf{stat}$, that, like the fixpoint operator of Atkinson et al. (2018), converts the description of the Markov kernel of an ergodic Markov chain into a sample from its unique stationary distribution. Up to minor changes in how certain error conditions are handled, we show that $\mathbf{norm}$ and $\mathbf{score}$ are eliminable from the extended language, in the sense of Felleisen (1991). We do so by giving an explicit program transformation and proof of correctness. In fact, our program transformation implements a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, in the spirit of the "Trace-MH" algorithm of Wingate et al. (2011) and Goodman et al. (2008), but less sophisticated to enable analysis. We then explore the problem of approximately implementing the semantics of the language with potentially nested $\mathbf{stat}$ expressions, in a language without $\mathbf{stat}$. For a single $\mathbf{stat}$ term, the error introduced by the finite unrolling proposed by Atkinson et al. (2018) vanishes only asymptotically. In the general case, no guarantees exist. Under uniform ergodicity assumptions, we are able to give quantitative error bounds and convergence results for the approximate implementation of the extended first-order language.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.037 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".