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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
Roy Burstein, Nathaniel J Henry, Michael L. Collison, Laurie B. Marczak, Amber Sligar, Neal Marquez, Mahdieh Abbasalizad Farhangi, Masoumeh Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahı, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dilaram Acharya, Oladimeji Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Davoud Adham, Mahdi Afshari, Mohammad Aghaali, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Rushdiá Ahmed, Joshua Akinyemi, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Mohammed Almalki, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, A. Kofi Amegah, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Zohreh Anbari, Sofia Androudi, Mina Anjomshoa, Fereshteh Ansari, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Al Artaman, Anvar Asadi, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Amir Ashraf‐Ganjouei, Reza Assadi, Bahar Ataeinia, Sachin Atre, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Ebrahim Babaee, Arefeh Babazadeh, Alaa Badawi, Soghra Bagheri, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Abbas Balouchi, Aleksandra Barać, Quique Bassat, Bernhard T. Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yared Belete Belay, Brent Bell, Michelle L. Bell, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S. Bernstein, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Suraj Bhattarai, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Gabrielle B. Britton, Annie J. Browne, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Pranab Chatterjee, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Cyrus Cooper, Vera Marisa Costa, Koustuv Dalal, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Farah Daoud, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, Ian Davis, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Rupak Desai, Aniruddha Deshpande, Hanna Demelash Desyibelew, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Díaz, Leila Doshmangir, André Rodrigues Durães, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Lucas Earl, Roya Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Elham Ehsani‐Chimeh, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Ziad El‐Khatib, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Shymaa Enany, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Maha Ezalarab, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Roghiyeh Faridnia, André Faro, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, João Carlos Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Joel M Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, Nancy Fullman, Silvano Gallus, Destallem Gebremedhin Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Bradford D. Gessner, Birhanu Geta, Peter W. Gething, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Paramjit Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Nick Golding, Nelson G. M. Gomes, Philimon Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Nicholas Graetz, Felix Greaves, Manfred S. Green, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep María Haro, Milad Hasankhani, Edris Hasanpoor, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohamed Hegazy, Delia Hendrie, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Thomas R. Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian Hollerich, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Mojtaba Hoseini‐Ghahfarokhi, Naznin Hossain, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Mohamed Hsaïri, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Nazrul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Mikk Jürisson, Nader Jafari Balalami, Amir Jalali, Javad Javidnia, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, John S. Ji, Yash Jobanputra, Kimberly B. Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Hamed Kalani, Rohollah Kalhor, Manoochehr Karami, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Roghayeh Khabiri, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Khaled Khatab, Amir M Khater, Mona M Khater, Alireza Khatony, Mohammad Khazaei, Salman Khazaei, Jagdish Khubchandani, Neda Kianipour, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Tufa Kolola, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Kris J Krohn, Nuworza Kugbey, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Desmond Kuupiel, Ben Lacey, Sheetal D Lad, Faris Lami, Anders Larsson, Paul H. Lee, Mostafa Leili, Aubrey J. Levine, Shanshan Li, Lee‐Ling Lim, Stefan Listl, Joshua Longbottom, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Sameh Magdeldin, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Navid Manafi, Ana-Laura Manda, Morteza Mansourian, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Anthony Masaka, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Pallab K Maulik, Benjamin K. Mayala, Mohsen Mazidi, Martin McKee, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M. Mehta, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Ted R. Miller, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Edward J Mills, George Milne, GK Mini, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Hamed Mirjalali, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Efat Mohamadi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Yoshan Moodley, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ghobad Moradi, Masoud Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Abbas Mosapour, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ulrich Müeller, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Ghulam Mustafa, Behnam Nabavizadeh, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Azin Nahvijou, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Nahid Neamati, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Katie R. Nielsen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Mehdi Noroozi, Shirin Nosratnejad, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Soraya Nouraei Motlagh, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Kelechi Elizabeth Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Meysam Olfatifar, Solomon Olum, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Mojisola Oluwasanu, Obinna Onwujekwe, Eyal Oren, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortíz, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank Osei, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Abdol Sattar Pagheh, Smita Pakhalé, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Animika Pandey, Eun‐Kee Park, Hadi Parsian, Tahereh Pashaei, Sangram Kishor Patel, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Alexandre C. Pereira, Samantha Perkins, Brandon V. Pickering, Thomas Pilgrim, Majid Pirestani, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Oleguer Plana‐Ripoll, Hadi Pourjafar, Parul Puri, Mostafa Qorbani, Hedley Quintana, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Zohreh Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh Rajati, Sree Bhushan Raju, Azra Ramezankhani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Davide Rasella, Vahid Rashedi, Lal Rawal, Robert C. Reiner, André M. N. Renzaho, Satar Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Leonardo Roever, Elias Merdassa Roro, Max Roser, Gholamreza Roshandel, Daem Roshani, Ali Rostami, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Siamak Sabour, Nafis Sadat, Ehsan Sadeghi, Reza Saeedi, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Payman Salamati, Farkhonde Salehi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A. Salomon, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sâo José, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Sonia Saxena, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Lauren E. Schaeffer, David C. Schwebel, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amir Shamshirian, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Hamid Sharifi, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, Chloe Shields, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Kerem Shuval, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, João Pedro Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Solomon Sisay, Karen Sliwa, David L. Smith, Ranjani Somayaji, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bryan L. Sykes, PN Sylaja, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Takahiro Tabuchi, Nuno Taveira, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Quyen G. To, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Amir Vahedian‐Azimi, Pascual Valdéz, Job F. M. van Boven, Tommi Vasankari, Yasser Vasseghian, Yousef Veisani, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Giang Thu Vu, Isidora S Vujcic, Yasir Waheed, Jon Wakefield, Haidong Wang, Yafeng Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Joseph Ward, Robert G Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Lauren Woyczynski, Aimin Wu, Gelin Xu, Abbas Yadegar, Tomohide Yamada, Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi, Christopher Sabo Yilgwan, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Mustafa Z Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Erfan Zabeh, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Alireza Zangeneh, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Christopher J L Murray, Simon I Hay
Bibliographic record
VenueNature · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicGlobal Maternal and Child Health
Canadian institutionsUniversity of CalgaryOttawa HospitalMcMaster UniversityImpactSimon Fraser UniversityPublic Health Agency of CanadaUniversity of OttawaAIDS VancouverUniversity of British ColumbiaHospital for Sick ChildrenUniversity of TorontoYork UniversitySickKids FoundationUniversity of Manitoba
FundersMedical Research CouncilApplied Molecular Biosciences UnitKurdistan University Of Medical SciencesMekelle UniversityĐại học Quốc gia Hà NộiUniversity of PeradeniyaAddis Ababa UniversityUniversity of GondarUniversity of TabrizUniversidade Federal de SergipeUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiFogarty International CenterUniversidade do PortoBahir Dar UniversityUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoEunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentAlexandria UniversityBill and Melinda Gates FoundationKarolinska InstitutetTabriz University of Medical SciencesShahroud University of Medical SciencesBabol University of Medical SciencesTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesMazandaran University of Medical SciencesImam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal UniversityUniversität BielefeldAksum UniversityPublic Health Foundation of IndiaMansoura UniversityHamadan University of Medical SciencesUniversity of OxfordUniversidad Autónoma de SinaloaMaragheh University of Medical SciencesWellcome TrustUniversity of SouthamptonIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchIstituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri - IRCCSAustralian Catholic UniversityKaiser PermanenteUniversity of WashingtonA.T. Still UniversitySimon Fraser UniversityUniversity of OttawaU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
KeywordsInfant mortalityPediatricsMedicineGeographyDemographyEnvironmental healthPopulationSociology
Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.064
Threshold uncertainty score0.128
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.261
Teacher spread0.254 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations276
Published2019
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes