Injuries Reported by Selected Health Facilities During the Arbaeenia Mass Gathering at Babel Governorate, Iraq, 2014: Retrospective Records Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Arbaeenia is the largest religious mass gathering in Iraq. The conditions associated with mass gatherings result in high rates of injury. There have been no prior studies on injuries during the Arbaeenia mass gathering. OBJECTIVE: This study describes the injuries observed during the Arbaeenia mass gathering in Babel Governorate in Iraq between November 24 and December 14, 2014. METHODS: The study was conducted in Babel Governorate at the emergency departments of six public hospitals and two major temporary medical units that were located along the three roads connecting the Middle and Southern Iraqi governorates. We used the Iraq Injury Surveillance System modified form to collect information on injured patients treated in the selected facilities. Data on fatal injuries was obtained from the coroner's office. The following data were collected from the patients: demographics, outcome of injury, place and time of occurrence, mode of evacuation and medical care before arriving at the hospital, duration of travel from place of occurrence to hospital, disposition of non-fatal injury, cause and mode of injury, and whether the injury occurred in connection with the Arbaeenia mass gathering. RESULTS: Information was collected on 1564 injury cases, of which 73 were fatal. About half of the reported nonfatal injuries, 687/1404 (48.9%), and a quarter of fatalities, 18/73 (25%) were related to the Arbaeenia mass gathering (P<.001). Most of the reported injuries were unintentional, 1341/1404 (95.51%), occurred on the street, 864/1323 (65.6%), occurred during the daytime 1103/1174 (93.95 %). Most of those injured were evacuated by means other than ambulance 1107/1206 (91.79%) and did not receive pre-hospital medical care 788/1163 (67.7%). Minor injuries 400/1546 (25.9%) and traffic accidents 394/1546 (25.5%) were the most common types of injuries, followed by falls 270/1546 (17.5%). Among fatal injuries, traffic accidents 38/73 (52%) and violence 18/73 (25%) were the leading causes of death. Mass gathering injuries were more likely to occur among individuals aged 21-40 years (odds ratio [OR] 3.5; 95% CI 2.7-4.5) and >41 years (OR 7.6; 95% CI 5.4-10.6) versus those <21 years; more likely to be unintentional than assault (OR 5.3; 95% CI 1.8-15.5); more likely to happen on the street versus at home (OR 37.7; 95% CI 22.4-63.6); less likely to happen at night than during the day (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.4); and less likely to result in hospital admission (OR 0.5; 95% CI 0.3-0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that most injuries were minor, unintentional, and nonfatal, and most people with injuries had limited access to ambulance transportation and did not require hospitalization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".