Deep Learning Based on Standard H&E Images of Primary Melanoma Tumors Identifies Patients at Risk for Visceral Recurrence and Death
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Purpose: Biomarkers for disease-specific survival (DSS) in early-stage melanoma are needed to select patients for adjuvant immunotherapy and accelerate clinical trial design. We present a pathology-based computational method using a deep neural network architecture for DSS prediction. Experimental Design: The model was trained on 108 patients from four institutions and tested on 104 patients from Yale School of Medicine (YSM, New Haven, CT). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated on the basis of vote aggregation of individual image sequences, an optimized cutoff was selected, and the computational model was tested on a third independent population of 51 patients from Geisinger Health Systems (GHS). Results: Area under the curve (AUC) in the YSM patients was 0.905 (P < 0.0001). AUC in the GHS patients was 0.880 (P < 0.0001). Using the cutoff selected in the YSM cohort, the computational model predicted DSS in the GHS cohort based on Kaplan–Meier (KM) analysis (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The novel method presented is applicable to digital images, obviating the need for sample shipment and manipulation and representing a practical advance over current genetic and IHC-based methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".