2302. A Meta-Analysis of Risk Factors for Herpes Zoster Infection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The burden of herpes zoster (HZ) is significant worldwide, with millions affected and the incidence rising. Current literature has identified some risk factors for this disease; however, there is yet to be a comprehensive study that pools all evidence to provide estimates of risk. Therefore, The purpose of this study was to identify various risk factors, excluding immunosuppressive medication, that may predispose an individual to developing herpes zoster. Methods The literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central, Cochrane Systematic Reviews, Web of Science, CAB Direct, yielding case–control, cohort and cross-sectional studies that were pooled from January 1966 to September 2018. Search terms included: zoster OR herpe*OR postherpe*OR shingle*AND riskOR immunosupp*OR stress OR trauma OR gender OR ethnicity OR race OR age OR diabetes OR asthma OR chronic obstructive pulmonary disease OR diabetes. Risk ratios for key risk factors were calculated via natural logarithms and pooled using random effects modeling. Results From a total of 4417 identified studies, 93 were included in analysis (n = 3826134 HZ cases). Immunosuppression through HIV/AIDS (RR 3.25; 95% CI 2.47–4.27) or malignancy (RR 2.17; 95% CI 1.86–2.53) significantly increased the risk of HZ compared with controls. Family history was also associated with a greater risk (RR 2.48; 95% CI 1.70–3.60), followed by physical trauma (RR 2.01; 95% CI 1.39–2.91) and older age (RR 1.68; 95% CI 1.41–2.01). A slightly smaller risk was seen those with psychological stress, females, and comorbidities such as diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, cardiovascular diseases, renal disease, SLE, and IBD compared with controls (RR range: 2.08 to 1.25). We found that black race had lower rates of HZ development RR 0.69 (95% CI 0.56–0.85). Conclusion This study demonstrated patients with family history of HZ, older age, female sex, have particular comorbidities or are immunosuppressed have an elevated risk of herpes zoster. Patients with these characteristics are prime candidates for vaccination. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.039 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.021 | 0.072 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".