Glass Cliffs or Partisan Pressure? Examining Gender and Party Leader Tenures and Exits
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article adds to our understanding of the gendered impact of informal rules and norms for party leaders. Specifically, it examines the gendered nature of party leader tenures and exits. Using original data collected on party leader experiences in Canada, we test for the existence of gender differences in leader tenures and exits, and examine two potential explanations for any differences. We find that leader tenures and exits are indeed gendered but only within parties with the potential to form government, ones where the political stakes are highest. Within these major parties, women’s tenures as party leaders are significantly shorter than men’s and they are significantly more likely to be forced to resign from the position. We find clear evidence of the existence of the glass cliff phenomenon in major parties but unclear evidence of its role in women’s shorter tenures. Instead, women’s shorter tenures are explained by the harsher set of standards being applied to women party leaders.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it