Relative sea-level projections in Canada and the adjacent mainland United States
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Relative sea-level projections are provided for 59 locations in Canada and 10 in the adjacent mainland United States (New England and Washington State) through the 21st century, relative to 1986-2005. The projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). They include contributions from thermal expansion of the ocean (steric effect), land ice melting and discharge, and anthropogenic influences. The global mean sea-level projection for RCP8.5, the largest emissions scenario, at 2100 is 74 cm (5%-95% range is 54 to 98 cm). Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of vertical land motion are incorporated into the relative sea-level projections. In the regions presented here, vertical land motion, largely arising from glacial isostatic adjustment, plays a prominent role in determining projected relative sea-level change. On the east coast, crustal subsidence, combined with dynamic oceanographic changes, generates relative sea-level projections that are similar to or larger than the global mean projections in large parts of Atlantic Canada and New England. On the west coast, most relative sea-level projections are smaller than the global means, although some sites in Washington State and southern British Columbia feature relative sea-level projections similar to the global values. The largest variation in projected relative sea-level rise occurs in the Arctic, owing to the very large spatial differences in present-day crustal uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment. Here, projected relative sea-level at 2100 varies from around 1 m of sea-level fall (median values) where land is rising quickly on Hudson Bay, while it reaches about 70 cm of sea-level rise on the Beaufort coast where the land is subsiding. A scenario featuring partial collapse of a portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet provides an additional 65 cm of sea-level rise to RCP8.5, and may be appropriate to consider when tolerance to the risk of sea-level rise is low. The relative sea-level projections given here only provide a trajectory through this century, but the IPCC AR5 projects continued global sea-level rise in coming centuries. As understanding improves of the various components of sea-level rise, it will be necessary to update, on an occasional basis, the relative sea-level projections and re-evaluate the implications for infrastructure, habitat, and marine navigation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it