A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract On 13 March 1989, the largest magnetic storm of the last century caused widespread effects on power systems including a blackout of the Hydro‐Québec system. Since then this event has become the archetypal disturbance for examining the geomagnetic hazard to power systems. However, even 30 years on from 1989, the story of exactly what happened in March 1989 is far from complete. This paper reexamines the information available about the March 1989 event and uses this to construct a timeline and description of the space weather phenomena and how they caused the power system effects. The evidence shows that the disturbance was caused by two coronal mass ejections (CMEs): the first associated with a X4.5 flare on 10 March and the second linked to a M7.3 flare on 12 March. The arrival of the interplanetary CME shock fronts caused storm sudden commencements at 01.27 and 07.43 UT on 13 March. The transit time and speed of the first (second) interplanetary CME shock are 54.5 hr (31.5 hr) and 760 km/s (1,320 km/s). Empirical relations are used to estimate solar wind speed and southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bs , and give values of v = 980 km/s, Bs = 40 to 60 nT at the peak of the storm. Key findings are that the second storm sudden commencement occurred at the same time as the substorm that impacted the Hydro‐Québec system and indicates that external triggering of the substorm may have contributed to a faster substorm onset than might otherwise have occurred. This caused the production of larger geomagnetically induced currents that caused the Hydro‐Québec blackout. The March 1989 storm had the largest recorded value of the Dst index representing the size of the magnetic storm main phase, but the Hydro‐Québec blackout occurred early in the storm when the Dst value was less disturbed. Only later in the storm did Dst reach its peak value. At this time an expansion of the auroral oval brought disturbances to lower latitudes where they caused power system problems in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it