#LE19 – a turning of the tide? Report of local elections in Northern Ireland, 2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Otherwise routine local elections in Northern Ireland on 2 May 2019 were bestowed unusual significance by exceptional circumstance. A prolonged stalemate between the two largest political parties had left Northern Ireland without a devolved government for over two years; meanwhile, arrangements for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland had been central in the turbulent ‘Brexit’ process engulfing the UK government. Meaning, that the local elections in 2019 would be a litmus test of public opinion in Northern Ireland at a time when the place more often spoken about than spoken for. In the event, results were mixed; there were signs of electoral continuity and others of political flux. Two trends will likely be significant in the long term. First, the consolidation of ethno-nationally defined electorates on the part of the DUP and Sinn Féin following the continued decline in support for the moderate unionist UUP and moderate nationalist SDLP. Second, a surge in support for the cross-community Alliance Party and a notable increase in support for the non-aligned Green Party and People Before Profit Alliance, alongside Independent candidates, suggests diversification in the issues directing Northern Irish voters’ allegiance, and at least a partial decline in the electoral salience of the constitutional question.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".