OSSOS. XVIII. Constraining Migration Models with the 2:1 Resonance Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Resonant dynamics plays a significant role in the past evolution and current state of our outer solar system. The population ratios and spatial distribution of Neptune’s resonant populations are direct clues to understanding the history of our planetary system. The orbital structure of the objects in Neptune’s 2:1 mean-motion resonance (“twotinos”) has the potential to be a tracer of planetary migration processes. Different migration processes produce distinct architectures, recognizable by well-characterized surveys. However, previous characterized surveys only discovered a few twotinos, making it impossible to model the intrinsic twotino population. With a well-designed cadence and nearly 100% tracking success, the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) discovered 838 trans-Neptunian objects, of which 34 are securely twotinos with well-constrained libration angles and amplitudes. We use the OSSOS twotinos and the survey characterization parameters via the OSSOS survey simulator to inspect the intrinsic population and orbital distributions of twotinos. The estimated twotino population, with H r < 8.66 (diameter ∼100 km) at 95% confidence, is consistent with the previous low-precision estimate. We also constrain the width of the inclination distribution to a relatively narrow value of and find that the eccentricity distribution is consistent with a Gaussian centered on e c = 0.275 with a width e w = 0.06. We find a single-slope exponential luminosity function with α = 0.6 for the twotinos. Finally, for the first time, we meaningfully constrain the fraction of symmetric twotinos and the ratio of the leading asymmetric islands; both fractions are in the range of 0.2–0.6. These measurements rule out certain theoretical models of Neptune’s migration history.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".