Spatio-Temporal Relationships between Fumarolic Activity, Hydrothermal Fluid Circulation and Geophysical Signals at an Arc Volcano in Degassing Unrest: La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (French West Indies)
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Over the past two decades, La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe has displayed a growing degassing unrest whose actual source mechanism still remains unclear. Based on new measurements of the chemistry and mass flux of fumarolic gas emissions from the volcano, here we reveal spatio-temporal variations in the degassing features that closely relate to the 3D underground circulation of fumarolic fluids, as imaged by electrical resistivity tomography, and to geodetic-seismic signals recorded over the past two decades. Discrete monthly surveys of gas plumes from the various vents on La Soufrière lava dome, performed with portable MultiGAS analyzers, reveal important differences in the chemical proportions and fluxes of H2O, CO2, H2S, SO2 and H2, which depend on the vent location with respect to the underground circulation of fluids. In particular, the main central vents, though directly connected to the volcano conduit and preferentially surveyed in past decades, display much higher CO2/SO2 and H2S/SO2 ratios than peripheral gas emissions, reflecting greater SO2 scrubbing in the boiling hydrothermal water at 80–100 m depth. Gas fluxes demonstrate an increased bulk degassing of the volcano over the past 10 years, but also a recent spatial shift in fumarolic degassing intensity from the center of the lava dome towards its SE–NE sector and the Breislack fracture. Such a spatial shift is in agreement with both extensometric and seismic evidence of fault widening in this sector due to slow gravitational sliding of the southern dome sector. Our study thus provides an improved framework to monitor and interpret the evolution of gas emissions from La Soufrière in the future and to better forecast hazards from this dangerous andesitic volcano.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it