Diverging trends in incidence of HIV versus other sexually transmitted infections in HIV-negative MSM in Amsterdam
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We investigated changes in incidence rates of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and trends in sexual behavior in MSM from 2009 to 2017. DESIGN: Open prospective cohort study. METHODS: HIV-negative MSM enrolled in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies were included. Participants semiannually completed a questionnaire on sexual behavior and were tested for HIV-1, syphilis, and urethral, anal and pharyngeal chlamydia and gonorrhea. Time trends in incidence rates were analyzed using exponential survival models. RESULTS: During follow-up, 42 of 905 MSM acquired HIV. The HIV incidence rate was 1.9/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-3.7] in 2009 and decreased to 0.5/100 person-years (95% CI 0.2-1.4) in 2017 (P = 0.03). The largest decrease was observed in participants aged at least 35 years (P = 0.005), while the trend remained stable in 18-34 year olds (P = 0.4). The incidence rate for any bacterial STI was 16.8/100 person-years (95% CI 13.4-21.0) in 2010, and increased to 33.1/100 person-years (95% CI 29.0-37.9) in 2017 (P < 0.001). Between 2009 and 2017, the percentage reporting condomless anal sex with casual partners increased from 26.9 to 39.4% (P < 0.001), and the mean number of casual partners from eight (95% CI 8-8) to 11 (95% CI 10-11) (P = 0.05). Condomless anal sex with steady partner(s) remained stable over time (P = 0.5). CONCLUSION: Among MSM in Amsterdam, incidence rates of HIV versus other STI show diverging trends. The increase in STI incidence coincides with a decrease in condom use with casual partners. The decrease in HIV incidence, despite increased sexual risk behavior, suggests that other HIV prevention methods have been successful in reducing HIV transmission among MSM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".