A within-flock model of Salmonella Heidelberg transmission in broiler chickens
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As part of the development of a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model of third-generation cephalosporins (3GC)-resistant Salmonella Heidelberg, a compartmental (SEIR) model for S. Heidelberg transmission within a typical Canadian commercial broiler chicken flock was developed. The model was constructed to estimate the within-flock prevalence and the bacterial concentration in the barn environment at pre-harvest, and to assess the effect of selected control measures. The baseline scenario predicted an average within-flock prevalence of 23.5 % (95 % tolerance interval: 15.7-31.4) and an average bacterial concentration of 3.579 (0-4.294) log CFU/g of feces in the barn environment at pre-harvest (on the day the flock is sent to slaughter). Because vertical introduction of S. Heidelberg into the barn was already uncommon in the baseline scenario, vaccination of broiler parent flocks appeared to have a negligible effect, while vaccination of broiler chicken flocks substantially reduced the bacterial concentration at pre-harvest. Cleaning and disinfection between batches markedly reduced the within-flock prevalence at pre-harvest, but the effect on bacterial concentration was limited outside of the beginning of the production period. Extending downtime between batches by 7 days had little effect on within-flock prevalence or bacterial concentration of S. Heidelberg when compared to the baseline scenario. This study provides a basis to describe S. Heidelberg dynamics within a broiler chicken flock and to predict the within-flock prevalence and bacterial concentration at pre-harvest, and includes a description of the limitations and data gaps. The results of these analyses and associated uncertainties are critical information for populating QMRA models of the downstream impacts on public health from on-farm and other food-chain practices. Specifically, the study findings will be integrated into a broader farm-to-fork QMRA model to support the risk-based control of S. Heidelberg resistant to 3GC in broiler chicken in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".