Time Trends in First-Episode Genital Herpes Simplex Virus Infections in an Urban Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Genital herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) has emerged as the leading cause of first-episode genital herpes among specific populations in the United States, such as adolescents, young adult women, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We examined trends in the etiology of first-episode genital herpes diagnoses over time in a sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic population. METHODS: Using an electronic database, we identified persons diagnosed as having first-episode genital herpes at Public Health - Seattle & King County STD Clinic from 1993 to 2014 and compared risk factors for genital HSV-1 versus herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. RESULTS: Of 52,030 patients with genital ulcers, 3065 (6.15%) had first-episode genital herpes infection: 1022 (33.3%) with HSV-1 and 2043 (67.7%) with HSV-2. Overall, 1154 (37.7%) were women, the median age was 28 years (interquartile range, 24-36 years), 1875 (61.2%) patients were white, and 353 (11.5%) were MSM. The number of patients diagnosed as having first-episode genital HSV-2 declined on average by 5.5 persons per year, from 208 in 1993 to 35 in 2014 (change of -5.6 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], -6.9 to -4.1), whereas HSV-1 diagnoses remained stable at approximately 50 per year (change of 0.2; 95% CI, -0.4 to 0.9). In a multivariate model, persons diagnosed as having first-episode genital HSV-1 rather than genital HSV-2 infection were more likely to be younger (age <30 years [relative risk {RR}, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22-1.55]), white (RR, 3.16; 95% CI, 2.57-3.88), and MSM (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a significant decrease in the frequency of first-episode genital HSV-2 and a stable number of first-episode genital HSV-1 infections in a STD clinic over the last 2 decades.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".